No repression? Transformation in French.

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We want an ecology that is accessible and fair, an ecology that leaves no one alone, ‍

Macron said. The announced strategy is much less ambitious than previously announced projects, also in the context of the visible social effects of the ongoing energy crisis. The crisis, as a result of the invasion of Ukraine, has translated into an increase in the number of unheated apartments — according to Eurostat, this increased to 10.7% in 2022 compared to 6% a year earlier.

Retreat from the ban on heating boilers

The environmental regulation came into force from mid-2022 RE2020, which banned the use of heating systems with an emission exceeding 300g of CO₂/kWh — including gas, oil and coal — in new construction projects, including residential buildings, offices, schools, hotels and shops. Initially, it was intended to extend the ban also to older construction projects, which would actually force French citizens to switch to renewable heating. Back in 2022, Macron, in his speech in Belfort, announced that gas and other fossil fuels would be replaced by biofuels, biomass and biogas. The move away from fossil fuels was to be closely linked to the development of French industry and the creation of tens of thousands of new jobs. The president described it as Building Energy Sovereignty on Industrial Sovereignty. FThe foundations of the French energy industry would traditionally be the atom, as well as hydrogen and renewable energy. Macron described the upcoming changes as The energy revolution.

The reality turned out to be more demanding and difficult than the utopian vision of an express green transformation. Currently, more than 11 million French people use gas-powered installations to heat their homes. As Jean Christophe Repon, president of the Confederation of Independent Building Contractors, pointed out in the context of the announcement of the electrification of home heating:

Training 200,000 heat pump installers by 2026 is not feasible.

Now, just one year later, France is calling on the European Commission to step up investment in climate transition to create incentives for decarbonising heating. The French government has decided not to introduce a ban on the installation of gas boilers and is withdrawing from raising energy efficiency requirements for heating equipment. The French ban, meanwhile, has become a model for the guidelines for heating appliances contained in the proposed European regulation on ecodesign - today the regulation being prepared by the Commission has become an orphan. In its current radical form, which implies a ban on the sale of heating boilers from 2029, neither France nor Germany want it.

Autogas accelerates

According to France Gases Liquids Autogas is gaining popularity in France. According to a report published by the French association, sales of new cars powered by autogas increased by 40.9% year-on-year. In addition, in 2023 there was also a 22.84% increase in the number of registrations of used cars using LPG as an energy source. In the same period, FGL recorded an increase of 25.7% compared to 2022 in the volume of LPG sold at service stations. Autogas is a cheaper alternative to gasoline, which is playing a vital role in the French province in the face of the ongoing severe energy crisis.

The development of the autogas plant market is served by the fact that cars powered by LPG are classified as low-emission (Crit'Air 1), which allows them to enter the French equivalent of clean transport zones - including the center of Paris.

Yellow Vests vs. Reforms

Since the outbreak of the Yellow Vest protests in 2018, France has yet to fully cope with the specter of social unrest. Then protests erupted after the announcement of the introduction of the so-called carbon tax, which would significantly raise energy prices - Climate policy was not so much the cause as the trigger. in the face of the progressive dysfunction of the French welfare state.

Macron, perhaps drawing lessons from the costly political battle over Germany's heating bill, during which all parties supporting a radical approach to energy reform have lost image and politics, does not intend to follow the same path. Élisabeth Borne, the French prime minister, presented a plan in September Ecological Transformation in French leaders of other political parties and environmental organizations, who rated it as unambitious. President Macron, however, recognized that climate ambitions must correspond to the financial capabilities and needs of French society.

What Vadis Europe?

‍Recent developments in Germany and France, where the initially overly ambitious goals of the energy transition met with a sharp reaction from society and were consequently adapted to the possibilities of civilization, signal a certain shift in sentiment towards energy policy in Europe.

Too radical measures, based on prohibitions - as in the case of heating boilers - without rational transition periods, can contribute to increases in the cost of living of residents. Then the debate on energy reform can move to the streets of cities — Paris, Berlin or Warsaw. The energy trillemate is by definition difficult to implement because it requires balancing climate, social and economic objectives. Policies dictated from an ideological position have no chance of success and will only contribute to an increase in support among extreme political formations. There are many indications that, due to the push for radical climate solutions in the upcoming elections in June 2024, the Green faction will lose a significant part of its representation in the European Parliament to populist and nationalist parties. Revolutions give birth to radicalism, and the energy revolution awakens centrifugal movements in Europe that threaten the future of the European project.