Without repression? Transformation in French.

‍

We want an ecology that is accessible and fair, an ecology that leaves no one alone,‍

Macron said. The announced strategy is much less ambitious than previously announced projects, not least in the context of the visible social impact of the ongoing energy crisis. The crisis, a result of the invasion of Ukraine, has translated into an increase in the number of underheated housing units - rising to 10.7% in 2022 from 6% a year earlier, according to Eurostat.

Reversing the ban on heating boilers

As of mid-2022, environmental regulation RE2020 came into effect, which banned heating systems with emissions of more than 300g_CO2/kWh - including gas, oil and coal - in new construction projects, including residential buildings,offices, schools, hotels and stores. The initial intention was to extend the ban to older construction projects as well, which would effectively force French citizens to switch to RES-powered heating. Back in 2022, Macron announced in his Belfort speech that gas and other fossil fuels would be replaced by biofuels, biomass and biogas. The move away from fossil fuels was to be closely linked to the development of French industry and the creation of tens of thousands of new jobs. The president described this as basing energy sovereignty on industrial sovereignty. The foundations ofFrench energy would traditionally be nuclear, as well as hydrogen and renewable energy. At the time, Macron described the upcoming changes as an energy revolution.

Reality has proven more challenging and more difficult than the utopian vision of an express green transition. Currently, more than 11 million French people use gas-powered systems to heat their homes. As Jean Christophe Repon, president of the Confederation of Independent Building Traders, noted in the context of the announcement of the electrification of home heating:

Training in the 2026 perspective. 200,000 heat pump installers is not feasible.

Now, just a year later, France is calling on the European Commission to increase investment in the climate transition to create incentives for decarbonizing heating. The French government has decided not to ban the installation of gas boilers and is backing away from raising energy efficiency requirements for heating equipment. The French ban, meanwhile, has become a model for the guidelines for heating appliances contained in the proposed European eco-design regulation - today the regulation being prepared by the Commission has become an orphan. In its current radical form, involving a ban on the sale of heating boilers from 2029, neither France nor Germany wants it.

Autogas is accelerating

By France Gaz Liquides Autogas is gaining in popularity in France. A report published by the French association shows that year-on-year sales of new autogas-powered cars increased by 40.9%. In addition, there was also a 22.84% increase in registrations of used cars using LPG as an energy source in 2023. During the same period, FGL recorded a 25.7% increase over 2022 in the amount of LPG sold at gas stations. Autogas is a cheaper alternative to gasoline, which plays an important role in the French province amid the ongoing severe energy crisis.

The growth of the autogas installation market is helped by the fact that LPG cars are classified as low-emission (Crit'Air 1), allowing them to enter the French equivalent of clean transport zones - including downtown Paris.

Yellow vests vs. reforms.

Since the outbreak of the Yellow Vests protests in 2018. France has not yet fully dealt with the specter of social unrest. At the time, the protests erupted after the announcement of a so-called carbon tax that would significantly raise energy prices - climate policy was not so much the cause of them as the fuse in the face of the progressive dysfunction of the French social state.

Macron, presumably learning from the costly political battle over Germany's heat bill, during which all parties supporting a radical approach to energy reform lost image and politically, does not intend to follow the same path. Élisabeth Borne, the French prime minister, presented a plan for an environmental transition in French in September to leaders of other political parties and environmental organizations, who judged it unambitious. President Macron, however, acknowledged that climate ambitions must correspond with the financial possibilities and needs of French society.

Que Vadis Europa?

‍Recentevents in Germany and France, where the originally overambitious goals of the energy transition were met with a fierce public reaction and were, in effect, brought into line with the possibilities of civilization, signal a certain shift in sentiment toward energy policy in Europe.

Too radical measures, based on bans - as in the case of heating boilers - without reasonable transition periods, may contribute to increases in the cost of living for residents. Then the debate over energy reform could move to the streets of cities - Paris, Berlin, or Warsaw. The energy trilemma is by definition difficult to implement, because it requires balancing climate,social and economic goals. Policies dictated from an ideological position have no chance of success and will only contribute to the growth of support among extreme political formations. There are many indications that due to the push for radical climate solutions in the upcoming elections in June 2024, the Green faction will lose a significant portion of representation in the European Parliament to populist parties and nationalists. Revolutions breed radicals, and the energy revolution is stirring centrifugal movements in Europe that threaten the future of the European project.