LPG market after 3 quarters of 2022

In the period from January to September 2022, there was increase in global LPG sales in Poland by 3.5% compared to the same period a year earlier. The favourable price relationship of LPG relative to conventional fuel prices and the overall economic situation in view of the rising prices of energy carriers contributed to the maintenance of a slight upward trend in the LPG industry, and in particular in the autogas sector. The share of autogas in sales remained at the level of 75%, and the increase in consumption in this sector was contributed by the appearance of Ukrainian cars on Polish roads. Ukraine, along with Poland, Italy and Turkey, belongs to the largest autogas markets in Europe.

During 9 months of 2022, deliveries of LPG from Russia decreased compared to the previous year, but liquefied gas from the east continues to shape prices in Poland. The share of Russian gas fell below 50% for the first time in the 21st century, while Sweden's share exceeded 30% - 10pp more, than in the whole of 2021. Interestingly, in the 3rd quarter, the share of supplies from Sweden decreased slightly compared to the second quarter, and deliveries of Russian crude increased before the start of the heating season, almost returning to the level before the invasion of Ukraine (101,000 tons in September against 108,000 tons in February and 58,000 tons in May).

In May last year, for the first time since 1990, a country other than Russia supplied Poland with the most liquefied gas - then as much as 93,000 tons of LPG came from Sweden (47% of May imports). In 2022, significant volumes of LPG from the USA also appeared in Poland for the first time - the United States became the 5th largest supplier of liquefied gas to the Polish market: after Russia, Sweden, Kazakhstan - which returned to the role of a significant supplier for the first time since 2018 - and Lithuania. The bottleneck of changes in supply directions turned out to be the railway infrastructure and the availability of standard gauge tanks.

In the period January-September 2022, almost 321 thousand tons were exported from Poland (without CN code 2901), while exports in the whole of 2021 amounted to 225 thousand tons. Since, as a result of the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the parties stopped trading LPG with each other, Poland became an important supplier of liquefied gas to its neighbor. After logistical and commercial preparations in the spring, companies from the LPG industry began to supply the raw material to Ukraine. The share of Ukraine in the total Polish LPG re-export reached close to 70% in the summer, and for the entire period of 9 months of 2022 it amounted to 42.5%.

Full detailed data on the LPG market in 2022, including price analysis, will be included in the latest POGP Annual Report, which will be presented on April 27 during Conference of the Gas Fuels Forum. One of the important topics of the event will be the conditions of changes in the directions of supply for Poland. We invite you to participate!

Photo: Anthony Davey, Pixabay