LPG market after 3 quarters of 2022.

In the period from January to September 2022, global LPG sales in Poland increased by 3.5% compared to the same period a year earlier. The favorable price relations of LPG in relation to the prices of traditional fuels and the general economic situation due to the rising prices of energy carriers contributed to the maintenance of a slight growth trend in the LPG industry, particularly in the autogas sector. The share of autogas in sales remained at 75%, and the appearance of Ukrainian cars on Polish roads contributed to the increase in consumption in this sector. Ukraine is among the largest autogas markets in Europe, along with Poland, Italy and Turkey.

In the 9 months of 2022, LPG supplies from Russia fell compared to the previous year, but LPG from the East continues to shape prices in Poland. The share of Russian gas fell below 50% for the first time in the 21st century, while Sweden's share exceeded 30% - 10pp more than it did in all of 2021. Interestingly, the share of supplies from Sweden fell slightly in Q3 compared to Q2, while Russian supplies increased before the heating season began, almost returning to pre-invasion levels in Ukraine (101,000 tons in September compared to 108,000 tons in February and 58,000 tons in May).

Last May, for the first time since 1990, a country other than Russia supplied Poland with the largest amount of LPG - then as much as 93,000 tons of LPG arrived from Sweden (47% of May's imports). In 2022, significant quantities of LPG from the US also arrived in Poland for the first time - the US became the 5th largest supplier of LPG to the Polish market: after Russia, Sweden, Kazakhstan - which returned to the role of a significant supplier for the first time since 2018. - and Lithuania. Rail infrastructure and the availability of normal-gauge tank cars proved to be the bottleneck of supply diversions.

In January-September 2022, on the other hand, nearly 321,000 tons (excluding CN code 2901) were exported from Poland, while exports in the whole of 2021 amounted to 225,000 tons. Since the parties stopped trading LPG with each other as a result of the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, Poland became an important supplier of LPG to its neighbor. After logistical and commercial preparations in the spring, LPG companies began supplying the raw material to Ukraine. Ukraine's share of total Polish LPG re-exports reached nearly 70% in the summer, and for the entire nine-month period of 2022 it amounted to 42.5%.

Full detailed data on the LPG market in 2022, including an analysis of prices, will be included in the latest POGP Annual Report, which will be presented on April 27 at the Gas Fuels Forum conference. One of the important topics of the event will be the determinants of supply diversions for Poland. You are welcome to attend!

Photo: Anthony Davey, Pixabay