LPG market in mid-2024

According to customs data, the import of LPG has slightly decreased, while the re-export of this product has significantly decreased - by about 45% compared to the first half of 2023. The amount of gas of Russian origin imported under a transitional period under European sanctions almost unchanged due to the very favorable price of this raw material - already about 1/4 lower than the fuel imported from other directions. Record-low autogas prices are associated with a large volume of imports of cheap liquefied gas from Russia - apart from a temporary collapse in the summer of 2022, immediately after the start of the invasion, about 100 thousand tons enter Poland every month.

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Given the high price sensitivity of consumers in the individual market, the cost of importing fuel contributes to strengthening the competitive position of importers of Russian gas. In percentage terms, the share of imports from Russia increased in the first half of the year from 50% to 53%. The share of gas of Swedish origin is decreasing for another year in a row, while the importance of other suppliers - Norway, UK - is increasing. Britain and the United States. In particular, gas from the USA, the largest producer and exporter in the world, is gradually gaining importance on the Polish market.

Ukraine remains the largest recipient of LPG shipped from Poland abroad for the third year in a row, but the volume of imports decreased from nearly 200,000 to 120,000 tons compared to last year. The Ukrainian market turns towards supplies from the Balkans, through Romania and Hungary. The decline in re-exports could play a significant role in stabilizing the market after the entry into force of the embargo on LPG of Russian origin in December 2024.

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As in previous years, rail deliveries traditionally dominated in the first half of 2024:55%. By almost half, to 12.8%, the share of imports carried out by road transport increased - almost 160 thousand tons of gas have already reached Poland by tankers, mainly from Russia and the Baltic countries. This share is likely to increase further. The share of shipments by sea has fallen from nearly 35% in the first half of 2023 to 28%, but it is to be expected that this is a temporary phenomenon that will reverse after the effective entry into force of the sanctions.

The decline in re-exports to third countries (Ukraine) in the first half of the year is the first effect of the upcoming embargo on LPG from Russia. In the coming months, we will see a gradual retreat from Russian gas until it disappears from the market at the turn of the year. The current extremely attractive price of LPG on the Polish market seems unsustainable in the medium term.