LPG market in mid-2024.

According to customs data, imports of LPG declined slightly, while re-exports of this product fell significantly - by about 45% compared to the first half of 2023. The volume of Russian-origin gas imported under the transitional period under European sanctions was almost unchanged due to the very favorable price of this raw material - already about 1/4 lower than fuel imported from other directions. Record-low autogas prices are due to the large volume of low-cost liquid gas imports from Russia - apart from a temporary slump in the summer of 2022, immediately after the start of the invasion, about 100,000 tons enter Poland every month.

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In view of the high price sensitivity of consumers in the individual market, the cost of importing fuel contributes to strengthening the competitive position of importers of Russian gas. In percentage terms, the share of imports from Russia increased from 50% to 53% in the first half of the year. The share of Swedish-origin gas is decreasing for another consecutive year, while the importance of other suppliers - Norway, the UK and the US - is increasing. In particular, gas from the US, the world's largest producer and exporter, is gradually gaining importance in the Polish market.

Ukraine remains the largest buyer of LPG shipped abroad from Poland for the third year in a row, but the volume of imports fell from nearly 200,000 to 120,000 tons compared to last year. The Ukrainian market is turning to supplies from the Balkans, via Romania and Hungary. The decline in re-exports may play a significant role in stabilizing the market once the embargo on Russian-origin LPG goes into effect in December 2024.

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As in previous years, deliveries by rail traditionally dominated in H1 2024: they accounted for 55%. The share of imports carried out by road increased by nearly half, to 12.8% - already nearly 160,000 tons of gas came to Poland by tanker truck, primarily from Russia and the Baltic States. This share is likely to increase further. The share of deliveries by sea fell from nearly 35% in the first half of 2023 to 28%, but this is expected to be a temporary phenomenon, which will reverse once the sanctions take effect.

The decline in re-exports to third countries (Ukraine) in the first half of the year is the first effect of the upcoming embargo on LPG from Russia. In the coming months we will see a gradual retreat from Russian gas until it disappears from the market at the turn of the year. The current extremely attractive price of LPG on the Polish market seems unsustainable in the medium term.